Welcome to Call to Decision
Subject: The Oregon Budget Forecast- Stormy Days Ahead
Oregon Budget Forecast-Stormy Days AheadWhat is happening in Oregon
with the PERS (Public Employee Retirement System) is what is happening
in all the states in the U.S. Forty percent (40%) goes into PERS in
nearly all cases. Translation: Every government agency, i.e. school
districtts, police, fire, counties, cities, etc. have to take 40% of
each of their budgets and put it aside for their PERS employees. It
may be a little less in some but still a big bite. Oregon retirees at
one time were retiring after 30 years with as much as they were making
when they were working plus other perks.
We've met the enemy and it is us! The state's are required to balance
their budgets so many truly needy will see their programs cut because
of PERS or our state leaders will go to Washington, D.C. with their
hands out for a "bail out" and President Barack Obama will
continue keeping the printing presses rolling with bogus fiat money
(just like President Bush did) and our national debt will continue to
grow. We can never get it paid. I roughly estimate with all the
promised entitlements, we could easily be in debt in excess of $50
TRILLION so don't be deceived by the $10 or $11 trillion you are being
fed in the media.Our children and grandchildren are going to inherit
this massive debt. It's just not fair. www.newswithviews.com/Betty/Freauf98.htm
May I recommend Oregonians on my e-mail list get busy writing letters
to the editor of local newspapers and expose this scam. You should
also call your local talk radio shows.You can use Representative
Richardson's information.
If not you, who? If not now, when?
I won't give your e-mail out to be put on Starkey's list but I'd
highly recommend you send it to him and receive his highly accurate
information.
Betty Freauf
----- Original Message ----- From: Fred Starkey
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2009 12:25 PM
Subject: Fw: Oregon Budget Forecast--Stormy Days Ahead
TRUTH-HUNTER:
Keep in mind: PERS is now 40% of Payroll.
When we send One Million for payroll to the City of
Springfield, the Springfield School District, Lane County: $400,000 of
that amount goes to PERS.
EWEB also confirmed that PERS was 40% of payroll.
When I wrote Oregon's Grand Delusion, which is still on the
net, PERS was 22% of payroll.
When Sid "The Liar" Lieken, the major of Springfield,
said PERS was 5% of payroll, as he was promoting spending more money,
the state average as reported by Rep. Richardson was 33%.
While Lane County and the new D.A. are barking for more money
they are not telling you that they added a deferred comp. plan, which
they have contributed 25 million plus of our tax money.
And, of course, none of these government employer's are telling
you that PERS is 40% of their payroll cost. Moreover, the media is not
reporting this fact.
Too bad we can't elect an honest District Attorney.
But, I'll bet we can raise enough money to put him in jail for
lying.
Jerry Smith, the Chief of Police of Springfield, says that the jail
money is a lie.
I now have a person who was a former IRS Agent and CPA who can audit
these books and prove these people are liars.
If you have received this E-mail, you are one of over 100 to receive
it. If you know
anyone else who wants the truth with facts and evidence, please send
me their E-Mail and I will put them on the list.
We don't have much time before a violent revolution, which will start
when the US Dollar Collapses: probably this year: certainly no later
than next year. Sincerely,
Fred Starkey
----- Original Message ----- From: Representative Dennis Richardson
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 5:03 PM
Subject: Oregon Budget Forecast--Stormy Days Ahead
Rep.
Richardson's Newsletter
January
15, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oregon
Budget Forecast-Stormy Days Ahead
The
Oregon Legislature in now in session, and as an Oregon Legislator
since 2003 I have been researching, writing and emailing legislative
updates to thousands of Oregonians across the state as a public
service. I believe
an informed electorate is the hope for a free people.
These legislative updates are intended to inform you and other
Oregonians across the state about key issues confronting our
Legislature and how they can impact each of our lives.
Today's update focuses on the financial and economic situation
facing the 2009 Oregon Legislative Session.
Each
Legislative session, thousands of new laws are considered and hundreds
are passed into law, but the primary purpose of this and every
Legislative Session is to pass a balanced budget.
In the 2007 session, the Legislature had generous revenue
forecasts when creating the current 2007-09 Biennial Budget.
The question for the 2007 Legislative Session was, "What
good can we do with an extra $2.5 Billion of forecasted revenue?"
The Legislature's answer was to increase State spending by an
astounding 22% in a single two-year period.
Now the economic tables have turned; the euphoria is gone, and
the state cannot even meet its budgeted obligations for the current
biennium. The
first loss will be the failure to fully fund Oregon's Rainy Day Fund.
In 2007 the Legislature created the Oregon Rainy Day Fund. In
addition to a one-time payment from the corporate kicker, the
Legislature promised to deposit 1% of the General Funds/Lottery Funds
(GF/LF) budget into the Rainy Day Fund.
It was to be a savings program to set aside revenues during
boom times that would lessen the cuts required during times of
recession. Due to
the current economic downturn, the $140 million payment the
Legislature promised to deposit into the Rainy Day Fund will not be
made. In fact,
State revenues have decreased to a point that, in addition to $140
million Rainy Day Fund payment, another $139 million must be cut from
the current budget just to make it through the June 30, 2009 fiscal
year-end. In
short, Oregon's economy is falling fast; its unemployment rate is
climbing, and the prognosis for a recovery in 2009 is not good.
Notwithstanding
the deepening recession, Oregon revenues for the 2009-11 biennium were
still expected in December 2008 Forecast to increase by 5% over the
current biennium. Even
with such an increase, the cost to maintain our State government's
"current service level" (CSL) results in a shortfall of $1.4
billion. In other words, Oregonians have good news and bad news.
The good news is for 2009-11, Oregon presently anticipates
$15.852 Billion to spend in the next biennium-according to the
December revenue forecast.
The bad news is it will cost more than $17.2 Billion to pay for
Oregon State government's current service level.
Thus, even with a revenue increase of 5% (which is likely to
evaporate in the next forecast), Oregon will still need at least $1.4
billion of additional revenue in order to maintain its current level
of government programs and services.
In reality, such an amount will simply be too large a bite for
Oregon taxpayers to swallow.
The
Oregon Constitution does not permit deficit spending, so Oregon State,
like every family budget, has only three options during such times of
recession: increase
revenues, cut spending, or a combination of both.
The
Governor in the Governor's Recommended Budget (GRB), has opted for the
first alternative, and proposes to increase revenue in the following
ways:
Source of Increased Revenue
Amount of Tax/Revenue Increase
Energy Tax Credit "Adjustments"
$4.3 million
Corporate Minimum Tax Increase
$83.6 million
Change in Distribution of Liquor Revenues
$30 million
Transfer 10 percent of 911 tax revenues to GF
$8.1 million
"Enhanced" DOR Tax Collection
$20.7 million
Tobacco Tax Increase
$112 million
Provider/Insurance Taxes
$696 million
Gas Tax & Registration Fee Increases, etc.
$1 billion
Total Revenue Increase
$1.955 billion
Before
the Governor and Legislature consider raising revenue by increasing
taxes and fees on its citizens and businesses (and increasing Oregon's
long-term debt), it first would be prudent to review how Oregon's
current revenues are being spent.
The fundamental question is:
Does
Oregon have too little revenue or too much government?
The
size and cost of Oregon State government is growing exponentially and
such growth is unsustainable.
From
the above graph we see the total General Funds/Lottery Funds (GF/LF)
cost of Oregon State government has grown 27.5%
in only four years. The 2005-07 budget was $12.272 Billion and
the Governor's Recommended Budget (GRB) for 2009-11 budget is $15.848
Billion. It may be
different with you, but none of my friends, neighbors, and associates
have increased their incomes by 27.5% since 2005.
In my opinion, since the State has failed to set aside
sufficient contingency funds during good times, and it must rely on
money it receives from its citizens, it is unreasonable to expect the
State can continue such growth, when its citizens are in financial
crisis and must make drastic cuts on their own spending.
So what is to be done?
The
CHALLENGE for the Legislature is to do the following before increasing
Oregon taxpayers' financial burden with increased State debt,
increased business taxes, increased vehicle title fees, and the many
other proposed increases in taxes, fines and fees:
First,
Articulate the Core Principles and Priorities for Oregon State
Government. Oregon
is in a global period of economic crisis, and with every crisis comes
opportunities. In
2005, the Legislative Ways & Means committees were in a similar
situation with inadequate revenues to cover the escalating costs of
State government. We
Legislators on Ways & Means spent months taking testimony,
reviewing recommendations, and finally determining Oregon's spending
priorities. The
plan was to determine and approve payment for top priorities first,
and then approve funding the next highest priority items, and so forth
down the list until the money ran out.
Theoretically, it made sense to spend limited revenues on the
State's highest priority programs.
Everything went fine until the prioritized funding list was
made public. Advocates
for every program that saw its name below the funding cut-off line on
the prioritized list immediately mobilized their constituency.
The Capitol was invaded by program advocates; telephones began
ringing off the hook, and pleas for funding of all existing programs
flooded every Legislator's email system.
The Legislature caved in, all programs got their piece of the
budget pie, and the concept of prioritized spending was tossed out the
window. By the end
of the session, it was government-as-usual, and Oregon was left with a
State government continuing to grow at an unsustainable rate.
Now, four years later, the GF/LF expenses have increased by
27.5%, and we are no better off now than we were before. As much as
legislators like doing good with other people's money, it is time to
open our eyes, look to the future and recognize the fact that we must
curtail the expansion of such unsustainable government spending.
It
is time to again prioritize spending, and this time direct full and
adequate revenues only to high-priority, successful state and
community programs that accomplish the following core principles of
government:
1.
Provide for public safety-define it and do it, without apologies to
other programs. Protecting
the people is the first responsibility of good government.
2.
Provide 21st century infra-structure-Oregon's economic future requires
good infra-structure.
3.
Provide a business-friendly environment-Oregon citizens and businesses
are the customers of government agencies, programs and regulations,
and such customers deserve fast, efficient, economical, and courteous
treatment.
4.
Provide a world-class, 21st century education for our children-quality
of education is determined not merely by the amount of money spent,
but also by the measured performance of students and the satisfaction
of parents and teachers. In
addition, the quality of Oregon education is a key component for
attracting businesses to our state.
5.
Provide health and human services only for those who cannot provide
for themselves, and promote self-sufficiency, personal responsibility,
and community-based assistance for all others in need.
(Community-based models for providing for the poor and needy
must be developed. The
breath-taking escalation in government costs for health and human
services cannot be sustained-either by the state or nationally. Better
utilization of community assets will be key to future service delivery
models. The time
to develop them is now, not when a service-delivery crisis occurs.)
Second,
Consolidate Programs and Improve Government Efficiency. Oregon has
hundreds of departments, programs, and services.
Many have existed for decades, and each has its own
administrative costs and overhead. The combined growth of these
departments, programs and services contribute substantially to the
escalating costs of Oregon State government.
Before passing each of the proposed budgets, the answer to the
following question should be carefully considered:
"If
this department, program or service did not exist today, would we
create it?"
If
the answer is NO, the Legislature should move all crucial functions of
the obsolete or duplicative program elsewhere, then refuse to fund it.
The Legislature is the "people's purchasing agent."
Every program "purchased" with taxpayer dollars
should clearly justify the expenditure. Money spent on programs that
have outlived their usefulness is wasted.
This concept of "government self-evaluation" comes
from Peter Drucker and other knowledgeable management consultants, who
understand survival in today's economic environment.
Successful organizations should re-evaluate their missions,
their utilization of assets and personnel, their organizational
structure, and their performance measures every five years.
It is high time for Oregon to do the same.
The Oregon Department of Human Services has been undergoing
such self-evaluation, and is working to accomplish its self-stated
goal of becoming a "world class organization."
I salute Director Bruce Goldberg for his vision, and hope that
it will become the vision of every manager and case worker throughout
DHS.
Finally, When in a Financial Hole, Stop Digging.
In recent months, the Trillions of dollars borrowed by the
federal government to "bail-out" businesses with flawed
business models and leadership, and to provide "stimulus
packages" to lubricate the national economy has been shocking.
At last count, nearly $29,000 of additional federal debt has
been incurred for every man, woman and child in America.
This has been done without discussion of what the consequences
will be to the value of the dollar, the credit worthiness of our
country, or how these trillions of dollars of debt will be repaid.
Now, Oregon is contemplating going down that same path. Oregon
currently has $9.7 Billion of long-term debt and presently pays from
GF/LF funds $220 million in debt service payments.
Soon the Legislature will be asked to increase Oregon's
long-term debt with a State stimulus package Oregon's long-term debt
with a State stimulus package that will increase the cost of debt
payments to $330 million.
Before Oregon burdens its citizens with such huge amounts of
additional debt, the cost/benefit analysis should be carefully
considered.
In conclusion, for more than a decade most Oregonians (and Americans)
have violated sound financial principles that require producing wealth
and saving a portion of it, before spending "disposable
income" on things we want.
Emerson was right, "Things are in the saddle and ride
mankind," and we are being ridden by the heavy burden of the debt
used to buy our things. We have been maintaining a higher standard of
living than we could afford, and paying for it with debt from credit
cards, home refinancing, and home-equity lines of credit.
Now, for a number of reasons, the credit-debt music has stopped
and we are left without a chair to sit on.
Ultimately, we must reboot the system and start again.
The path to economic stability is likely to be long and
painful, but it makes little sense to prolong the inevitable by
putting Oregon deeper and deeper into debt.
The marketplace will correct itself, if we will allow it to do
so. Buyers will
decide which products and businesses will survive.
Unemployed Oregonians will find new businesses to start, new
products and services to provide, and new jobs will be created.
Rather than government trying to spend our way out of this
recession, it would help best by lessening regulations, red tape,
burdensome taxation, and fees.
Neither the Federal nor the State government can spend its way
out of this recession. It
will only delay the inevitable economic consequences of poor financial
decisions, and with that delay, exacerbate the adjustment when it
comes. Rather than
sink the ship of state with additional debt and taxes, we should find
ways to let it right itself in this financial storm with time-tested,
market-driven economic principles that made our state and nation
strong, before the heavy-handed and expensive fist of government came
to our aid in the 1930's, the 1960's, and today.
Sincerely,
Dennis
Richardson
State
Representative
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Central
Point, OR 97502
Tel:
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Fax:
(541) 664-6625
E-Mail:
rep.dennisrichardson@state.or.us
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